OPINION: Legal issues but strong polls make Trump’s bid hard to judge

Former President, Donald Trump is leading in the poll, but his multiple indictments could create a barrier between him and the most powerful position in the United States of America.

On Nov. 15, 2022, Trump announced his candidacy at Mar-a-Lago in an hour-long speech. This led to various responses — angry and scared or excited and hopeful.

Also, Trump and 18 of his colleagues were indicted in Georgia on 41 state charges, which may stop him from achieving his aspiration.

The investigation into Trump’s handling of classified documents is becoming more concerning. If he ends up getting found guilty, it could have a huge impact on the 2024 Republican presidential primary and even the general election. This case is disrupting the political ecosystem. There are various in-depth reports going around that a federal grand jury in Florida is meeting this week after a long break to determine next steps. 

Taylor Budowich, a longtime Trump aide who’s now leading the main super PAC supporting his 2024 presidential campaign, appeared before the grand jury. It seems like they asked him about a past statement he made suggesting that Trump didn’t keep any classified documents after leaving the White House. This unprecedented case has shined a light on the America justice system.

However, despite former President Trump’s mounting indictments his poll raking continues to grow — consistently.

According to a PBS report, “Biden has a slight lead over Trump, his predecessor and current frontrunner for the Republican nomination, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they’d choose the incumbent and 47 percent siding with Trump, according to the latest poll. Independents favor Trump by an 8-point margin. The race remains virtually unchanged from August and is inside the poll’s margin of error. While both candidates have a commanding lead with their respective partisan voters, 51 percent of voters in this poll have a negative impression of Biden and 56 percent dislike Trump.”

Meanwhile, The Guardian said of recent polling, “A new Washington Post-ABC poll showing Joe Biden trailing his presidential predecessor Donald Trump by 10 percentage points was excoriated by the leading political pollster Larry Sabato. Noting that the pollsters themselves cautioned that their survey was an outlier, Sabato – the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia – called the decision to release it ridiculous. ‘Ignore the Washington Post–ABC poll,’ Sabato wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. ‘How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you.’ He added: ‘Just plain embarrassing – for them.’ The New York Times’ chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, also criticized the poll that said Trump was ahead of Biden in the 2024 White House race.”

Former President Trump has a tough road ahead, but on Nov. 5, 2024, we will see who prevails.